{"id":25003,"date":"2023-03-30T18:17:06","date_gmt":"2023-03-30T10:17:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/?p=25003"},"modified":"2023-04-17T17:44:53","modified_gmt":"2023-04-17T09:44:53","slug":"2023-03-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/2023\/03\/30\/2023-03-30\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9632\u75ab\u79d1\u5b78\u8de8\u57df\u7cfb\u5217\u6d3b\u52d5\u958b\u8dd1\uff0c\u6b61\u8fce\u5404\u4f4d\u53c3\u52a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u3010\u9632\u75ab\u79d1\u5b78\u8de8\u9818\u57df\u8b1b\u5ea7\u7b2c\u4e94\u5834\u3011
\u8b1b\u984c\uff1aMathematical modeling of infectious diseases: insights and limitations
\u8b1b\u8005\uff1aJonathan Dushoff \u9ec3\u53cb\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\uff08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u9ea5\u514b\u99ac\u65af\u7279\u5927\u5b78\u751f\u7269\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u66a8\u81fa\u5927\u516c\u885b\u5b78\u9662\u8a2a\u554f\u5b78\u8005\uff09
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\u65e5\u671f\uff1a2023\u5e744\u670819\u65e5\uff08\u661f\u671f\u4e09\uff09
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\u5831\u540d\u9023\u7d50\uff1ahttps:\/\/forms.gle\/GsvWHxuiJNZokVsP8<\/a>
\u6f14\u8b1b\u5927\u7db1\uff1a
The spread of epidemics is structured by time distributions, including the now-famous \u201cserial interval\u201d between when an individual experiences symptoms, and when the person that they infect experiences symptoms. This is often used to represent the \u201cgeneration interval\u201d between when the same two individuals were infected, but these can be importantly different. Defining these time distributions clearly, and describing how they relate to each other, and to key parameters of disease spread, poses interesting theoretical and practical questions.

I will discuss how transmission intervals link the \u201cspeed\u201d and \u201cstrength\u201d of epidemics, issues in their estimation, and their role in helping monitor changes in the parameters underlying disease, with examples from COVID-19, rabies and other HIV.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u8b1b\u984c\uff1aReal-time assessment of infectious disease outbreaks: challenges and opportunities
\u8b1b\u8005\uff1a\u5433\u4e9e\u514b Andrei Akhmetzhanov\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\uff08\u81fa\u5927\u516c\u885b\u5b78\u9662\uff09
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\u65e5\u671f\uff1a2023\u5e744\u670828\u65e5\uff08\u661f\u671f\u4e94\uff09
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\u5831\u540d\u9023\u7d50\uff1ahttps:\/\/forms.gle\/SU2UnAMaGudgJbm67<\/a>
\u6f14\u8b1b\u5927\u7db1\uff1a
In my talk, I will discuss various examples of statistical analysis applied to infectious disease outbreaks, highlighting the challenges of real-time assessment in situations where epidemiological parameters are uncertain and constantly evolving. The case studies presented will include emerging infectious diseases such as Lassa fever and Ebola virus, as well as re-emerging infectious diseases such as measles. Additionally, I will examine the ongoing work on evaluating the COVID-19 pandemic and the global outbreak of mpox, focusing on its potential spread in Taiwan.


\u3010\u6578\u7406\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u9632\u75ab\u79d1\u5b78\u53ca\u76f8\u95dc\u8b70\u984c\u5de5\u4f5c\u574a\u3011<\/strong>
\u4e3b\u984c\uff1a\u6578\u7406\u61c9\u7528\u8207\u9632\u75ab\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u8de8\u57df\u5408\u4f5c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027
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\u8b70\u984c\u5167\u5bb9\u8207\u53d7\u9080\u8b1b\u8005\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

09:20~09:50 \u81fa\u5927\u5730\u7406\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u6eab\u5728\u5f18\uff08\u8b1b\u984c\uff1a\u300c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5 X \u5730\u7406\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u75ab\u60c5\u64f4\u6563\u7684\u6578\u7406\u6a21\u5f0f\u300d\uff09
09:50~10:20 \u4e3b\u984c\u6f14\u8b1b\uff1a\u4e2d\u7814\u9662\u793e\u6703\u6240\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u674e\u5ba3\u7def\uff08\u8b1b\u984c\uff1a\u300c\u7fa4\u9ad4\u6f14\u5316\u8cfd\u5c40\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u5efa\u6a21\u300d\uff09
10:20~10:50 \u4e3b\u984c\u6f14\u8b1b\uff1a\u6771\u5433\u6578\u5b78\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u856d\u5fd7\u5982\uff08\u8b1b\u984c\uff1a\u300c\u591a\u91cd\u5408\u4f5c\u8cfd\u5c40\u8207\u9632\u75ab\u300d\uff09
11:00~11:30 \u4e3b\u984c\u6f14\u8b1b\uff1a\u81fa\u5e2b\u5927\u6578\u5b78\u7cfb\u8b1b\u5ea7\u6559\u6388\u9673\u5efa\u9686\uff08\u8b1b\u984c\uff1a\u300cMathematical Model of Infectious Diseases and Related Data Prediction\u300d\uff09
11:30~12:00 \u4e3b\u984c\u6f14\u8b1b\uff1a\u524d\u885b\u798f\u90e8\u75be\u7ba1\u7f72\u75ab\u60c5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\u5289\u5b9a\u840d\uff08\u8b1b\u984c\uff1a\u300c\u6578\u5b78\u9047\u4e0a\u9632\u75ab- \u80fd\u70ba\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u89e3\u4ec0\u9ebc\u984c\uff1f\u300d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6642\u9593\uff1a112\u5e744\u670824\u65e5\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u4e0a\u53489:00-\u4e0b\u53481:00
\u5730\u9ede\uff1a\u81fa\u5e2b\u5927\u516c\u9928\u6821\u5340\u6578\u5b78\u9928 M210\u6559\u5ba4
\u6b32\u7dda\u4e0a\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u4ea6\u6b61\u8fce\u5831\u540d\uff0c\u672c\u8a08\u756b\u5c07\u63d0\u4f9b\u8996\u8a0a\u9023\u7d50\u3002
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\u6642\u9593\uff1a112\u5e744\u670824\u65e5\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u4e0a\u53489\u6642\u81f3\u4e0b\u53481\u6642
\u5730\u9ede\uff1a\u81fa\u5e2b\u5927\u516c\u9928\u6821\u5340\u6578\u5b78\u9928 M210\u6559\u5ba4
\u5831\u540d\u9023\u7d50\uff1ahttps:\/\/forms.gle\/SU2UnAMaGudgJbm67<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\u9632\u75ab\u7cfb\u5217\u6d77\u5831\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u9632\u75ab\u79d1\u5b78\u8de8\u9818\u57df\u8b1b\u5ea7\u7b2c\u4e94\u5834\u3011\u8b1b\u984c\uff1aMathematical modeling of infectious di […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[25004],"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-72","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25003\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ime.ntnu.edu.tw\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}